2007 Drivers' Championship Possibilities

The 2007 World Drivers' Championship will all come down to the final race in Brazil, and what a race it could be. For the first time since 1986, there will be more than two people with a chance of winning the championship at the final event. Lewis Hamilton leads the world championship - as he has done since the fourth race in Spain back in May (although he shared the lead with Alonso and Raikkonen after the Bahrain Grand Prix) - with 107 points, his McLaren teammmate and reigning world champion Fernando Alonso has 103 points, and Ferrari driver Kimi Raikkonen has 100 points. As the points leader, Lewis Hamilton stands the best chance of winning the world championship, but what must each driver do in order to be able to win? Well, as an aid to figuring this all out, I have crunched the numbers and have summarized the details in the tables below.

Championship logic table

Upon examination of the tables, it should be fairly obvious that Lewis Hamilton stands the best chance of winning the title, but there is a notable exception - the only case in which Hamilton cannot win the title (other than by finishing lower than the positions indicated in the table) is if Alonso wins and Raikkonen finishes second. In this case both Alonso and Hamilton would have 113 points, but Alonso would clinch it on a tie-breaker - he would have 5 wins to Lewis's 4. This is a crucial fact because it is actually a relatively likely outcome.

There are, in fact, a number of tie-break scenarios, and it is useful to review the rules. These are reproduced from the official Formula 1 Website (http://www.formula1.com/inside_f1/rules_and_regulations/sporting_regulations/5245/fia.html):

7.2 If two or more constructors or drivers finish the season with the same number of points, the higher place in the Championship (in either case) shall be awarded to :
a) the holder of the greatest number of first places,
b) if the number of first places is the same, the holder of the greatest number of second places,
c) if the number of second places is the same, the holder of the greatest number of third places and so on until a winner emerges. 
d) if this procedure fails to produce a result, the FIA will nominate the winner according to such criteria as it thinks fit.

So, let's look at the breakdown for each driver (the table obviously continues beyond 8th place finishes, but is not actually relevant beyond 5th place finishes, which is explained below):

 

  1sts  2nds  3rds  4ths  5ths  6ths  7ths  8ths
Hamilton 4 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Alonso 4 4 3 1 1 0 2 0
Raikkonen   5 2 4 1 1 0 0 1

 

An interesting situation is if Alonso finishes second and Hamilton finishes fifth.  Both drivers would be equal in points (111) but Hamilton would take the title on a tie-break by virtue of having one more fifth place finish than Alonso.  What was Hamilton's fifth place finish?  The Turkish Grand Prix, where his tyre failed near the end of the race when he looked set for a third place finish.  That just goes to show how important it was to bring the car home in a high position - had Hamilton finished seventh or lower in that race, the hypothetical tie-break outlined above would go to Alonso.  Another important tie-break scenario involves Kimi Raikkonen - if he is equal on points with either of the other drivers, he wins the tie-break because he has more wins (there is no way Hamilton or Alonso could be level on points with Raikkonen if they score an extra win by the way).

Consulting the table again, it should be fairly obvious that Alonso and Raikkonen have a more difficult task ahead of them than Hamilton. In particular, there are no scenarios in which Raikkonen can win the championship if he finishes third or lower. It's not impossible for the Finn, but he will need a lot of luck on his side. His teammate Felipe Massa had pledged to aid his title chances though.

What about Alonso's chances?  Well he does have a realistic shot at the title, but he ideally needs to win the race.  If Hamilton wins or places second he automatically wins the title.  If Raikkonen wins, Hamilton can finish as low as fourth and still win the title.  If Alonso wins, however, Hamilton must finish second in order to win the title.

So, that's just a brief overview of some of the championship possibilities.  No matter what the outcome, the race in Brazil on October 21st looks set to be a epic battle.

Effwun